Workshop ‘Probabilistic risk analysis and Bayesian decision theory’

Workshop of the IBS-DR working groups Ecology and Environment, Bayes Methods and Spatial Statistics, as well as the DVFFA working group Biometry. Lübeck, September 24-26, 2025.

Venue:
Universität zu Lübeck
Haus C4
Mönkhofer Weg 239
23562 Lübeck
53°50’07.9”N 10°42’02.9”E

Announcement and call for papers

Program (PDF)

Wednesday, September 24, 2025

Time
16:00-16:30 Opening, short introduction of organizers and attendees
16:00-17:30 Marcel van Oijen, Mark Brewer (Biomathematics & Statistics Scotland): Tutorial Probabilistic risk analysis and Bayesian decision theory, Part 1. Slides 1, Slides 2, Slides 3, github page
18:00 Joint dinner at Im alten Zolln

Thursday, September 25, 2025

Time
09:00-10:30 Marcel van Oijen, Mark Brewer (Biomathematics & Statistics Scotland): Tutorial Probabilistic risk analysis and Bayesian decision theory, Part 2
10:30-11:00 Break
11:00-11:30 Reinhard Vonthein (Uni Lübeck): Introduction to Bayesian statistics for physicians. Abstract, Slides
11:30-12:00 Amelie Friedsam (RKI Berlin): Geo-speatial characteristics of 567 places of tick-borne ecephalitis infection in southern Germany, 2018–2020. Abstract
12:00-12:30 Katharina Wöhs (Uni Salzburg): Salzburg-dengue ABM: a prototypical agent-based model to simulate a dengue infection via Aedes albopictus in Austria. Abstract
12:30-14:00 Lunch break
14:00-15:30 Marcel van Oijen, Mark Brewer (Biomathematics & Statistics Scotland): Tutorial Probabilistic risk analysis and Bayesian decision theory, Part 3
15:30-16:00 Break
16:00-16:30 Boris Kauhl (AOK Nordost): Small-area risk for various types of cancer and regional participation quotes in cancer screenings - is there a socioeconomic gradient?. Abstract
16:30-17:00 Fabian Kohrs: Benchmarking MCMC samplers on challenging synthetic posteriors. Abstract, Slides
15:30-16:00 Working meetings of the 3 working groups (IBS-DR and DVFFA)
18:00 Joint dinner at VAI

Friday, September 26, 2025

Time
09:00-10:30 Marcel van Oijen, Mark Brewer (Biomathematics & Statistics Scotland): Tutorial Probabilistic risk analysis and Bayesian decision theory, Part 4
10:30-11:00 Summary, farewell